Author Archive

How to create jobs without new spending or tax cuts

Monday, October 11th, 2010

Here’s a point that anti-government Glen Beck conservatives and social justice Barack Obama progressives should be able to agree on: we shouldn’t throw men in jail for cutting hair or painting living rooms without a license (current MD law) and if a man wants to start a new business he shouldn’t have to get permission from the existing businesses he aims to compete against in order to do so. Increasingly there is less and less you can do to earn a living without first getting permission from the government to do it, or working for a company that needs to get permission from the government. With unemployment stagnating around 10% and poverty at record levels, it is time to address a problem hiding in plain sight that keeps men from working and keeps more men from earning as much as they would otherwise all while benefiting a select few who are powerful and politically connected enough to make the rules. Eliminating or reducing occupational licensing would significantly help the job market, the economy, and the poor; without increasing spending, or sacrificing tax revenue. It is the obvious low hanging fruit that politicians should be plucking at to help get us back on track.

Conservatives should naturally support the elimination or reduction of government regulations that interfere with the right to enter into a private, legal contract. Our criminal justice system has a presumption of innocence, but our business regulatory system very much has a presumption of guilt. Why is someone who wants to open a restaurant presumed to be incompetent and a danger to the public until he proves otherwise to a government bureaucrat? The fear of being sued in civil court under strict or public liability certainly is a strong incentive to use care.  As for the general quality of a product or service “unskillfulness is sufficient punishment”-Lord Edward Coke in 1614 regarding an English case attempting to impose licensing requirements on upholsters.  If your product is substandard, people won’t buy from you. While the constitutional arguments against occupational licensing may be weak, purists should know that there are long dormant (since 1873) arguments to make under the privileges and immunities clause of the 14th Amendment. “Privileges and immunities” is 18th century speak for natural rights such as to earn a living). The 14th Amendment also provides two additional arguments under the due process and equal protection clauses. If depriving one of his liberty to earn a living is an insufficient argument, then what about jailing or fining one for doing so? Granted such jailing or fining occurs only after court proceedings (due process), but the entire trial is a charade with guilt predetermined the moment one opened an otherwise inherently legal business without a license. The impact of occupational licensing is anything but equal and carries distinct winners and losers. It is government policy that increases income and wealth inequality.

Progressives who traditionally see government as the solution to all problems may be a tougher sell, but an understanding and application of commonly accepted microeconomic theory (*read no dispute whatsoever, the economics equivalent of gravity*) reveals that occupational licensing raises prices for consumers, increases unemployment, reduces wages (especially among the lowest wages) and puts the American dream of owning your own business out of the reach of many. Simply put: occupational licensing helps create monopolies and monopolies are bad for everyone but monopoly owners. Here’s another point Adam Smith, Karl Marx and Jesus Christ would agree on: in the long run, under perfect competition, economic profit equals zero. Ergo, Smith, Marx and Christ would all agree that perfect competition is good and anti-competitive barriers to entry that create monopolies and lead to supernormal profits are bad. A monopolistic business will produce less stuff at a higher price and a higher profit margin than a perfectly competitive business would. Higher prices hurt poor people disproportionately because they spend a greater percentage of their income on buying stuff versus saving or investing it. Producing less stuff means businesses employ fewer workers and unemployment rises. The smaller number of employers also shifts the balance of power in favor of employers over employees when negotiating wages. Big businesses are able to get away with paying their workers less because there are fewer small businesses to compete with for the labor supply. In both the retail market of stuff for sale and the labor market of workers trying to earn a living, monopoly power directly transfers income and wealth from society as a whole to monopoly owners. For a more detailed explanation of how monopolists differ from perfectly competitive businesses, Drexel has put together a good, concise presentation.

As broadly unjust as occupational licensing is, it is likely to continue until there is a real public outcry over it. Unfortunately the moment someone complies with and jumps through one of these regulatory hoops, he just became a supporter of them. If anything, those on the inside of these anti-competitive protective barriers have reason to want to build the walls even higher. In spite of broad spectrum ideological support, the main reason these are unlikely to go away anytime soon is for the same reason that other government subsidies (occupational licensing is a big business subsidy) are unlikely to go away anytime soon: in the battle of concentrated interests versus diffuse interests, concentrated interests always win.

More Illegal Immigration Means More Jobs

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

Is it possible for someone who works hard and produces much, but accepts little pay and consumes little to be bad for the economy? Is such a person bad for job creation? What about their effect on the nation’s overall prosperity? The conventional anti-illegal immigrant wisdom would say yes. A rational application of sound economic principles and a review of historical evidence would say no.

Your contribution to this world is what you produce, not what you consume. Modern, mainstream economics tends to get this foundational principle backwards which results in all kinds of erroneous beliefs from savings is bad, to the fact that the top 2% of the country accounts for 30% of all the consumption is good, to a man who is willing to work for less than another man is bad. Here’s a good thought experiment to illustrate the ludicrousness of this position: volunteer work. To adhere to the mainstream school of thought is to believe that volunteer work is detrimental to society and that Habitat for Humanity is an econo-terrorist. Does anyone honestly believe the world would be a worse place with more volunteer work? Then what’s the harm of instead of going all the way to volunteer level and working for zero, simply working for a wage somewhere between zero and the wages that other men are willing to work for? Is there a difference between working 8 hours for $10/hr and working 4 hours for $20/hr and volunteering the remaining 4? A worker creates his contribution to society when he finishes his work, not when he gets paid. His payment and his resulting consumption from that is what he takes from society. To subscribe to the backwards thinking, consumption worshiping model is to believe that Paris Hilton is the model citizen for economic prosperity and Louis the XVI and Marie Antoinette were great for the starving peasants of pre-revolutionary France.

There is no shortage of jobs; there is only a shortage of money to pay for those jobs. By working for low wages, illegals free up money to be spent on entirely different products and services produced by entirely different workers. This increases overall prosperity, economic growth, and employment. Real prosperity, and real economic growth stem from increases in productivity. Productivity is simply getting more output from the same amount of input. It is an irrefutable fact that a man who can produce the same amount of work for $10/hr as another man can produce at $20/hr is twice as productive. This basic concept is same reason free trade increases economic growth, prosperity and jobs.

Finally, the historical evidence also supports a net positive. It is true that illegal immigration lowers the wages and employment levels of competing workers. But it is also true that when considering the total economy, wages, and employment outside of competing workers, its total impact is a net positive. It is also true that illegal immigrants pay more in taxes than they cost in social services.

A couple weeks ago I had one group of friends at the throat of another group of friends on my back porch at a campaign party I had. Given the nature of the night, it was full of spirited debate covering a wide range of issues both social and economic. The only topic that got so heated the thought of a fist fight breaking out crossed my mind was illegal immigration. Our country has many problems, and many of them are complex. Perhaps some of the emotion comes from the fact that it is seemingly easier to understand. In spite of the argument I have laid out here, I concede that illegal immigration is a problem, but the solution is to turn more of it into legal immigration through issuing more work visas, not to go the walls, guards with guns, and predator drones flying on US soil route. On a prioritized list of the problems that are burning this country down, illegal immigration is probably #7 or 8 on this list at best. At the very top of the list would be the collusion of big business with big government to crush everyone else. Anger is a terrible thing to waste. Every ounce of anger, every ounce of hate that is misdirected at illegal immigration is an ounce of anger and hate that is spared from the corrupt politicians who rightly deserve it. It is only by focusing our energy at the top of the list of what is burning down our country that we have any hope of putting out this fire.

Congratulations to Doctor Marcelo Cardarelli

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

I ran a campaign of truth and pragmatic problem solving. It was firmly rejected by those who vote in the Republican primary. Given that much of my platform pointed out the logical fallacies of party hardliners, it should come as no surprise that party hardliners did not agree with it. After-all, in terms of credibility, what is mine when compared to the radio talking heads that so herd the loyal flock? When listeners don’t understand the subject matter themselves, it is a contest of credibility when opinions differ. The country is broken, the party is broken, and the party system is broken. I thought there was an appetite for brass-tacks truth this year. I was wrong. So to that end, a 10 second video clip that sums up my feelings.

Doctor Cardarelli is probably the closest to me ideologically of all the other candidates. During a candidate debate he said he supports honest money and a return to the gold standard. I learned he is also a small business owner and he specifically agreed with my point that the payroll tax and small business regulation are both oppressive. He is also the most moderate on what are traditionally divisive and polarizing issues. Having met him in person, I can say he strikes me as a good, honest man, who is genuinely concerned about the direction of his country, knows the issues, and offers some thoughtful solutions. I wish him the best, and have reached out to him to offer my support.

I will continue to post some economic blogs on here, and when this is no longer available, on joshdowlut.com, although not as frequently as I had been. Along with Mark Grannis, and Rick Saffery, my blogs are among the few on here that are interesting, provocative,  the product of independent,  critical thinking, and therefore offer value to the reader.

The Path to Prosperity: My 10 Principles of Economics in Plain Speak

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

Many of the policy decisions that impact our lives are made based on mistruths, and misunderstanding of what it takes to create prosperity. I’ve compiled a list of the truth antidotes to some of the most notorious of these. Some of my principles can be found in textbooks. Some of them cannot. Some of them directly conflict with what is in most textbooks. Nevertheless they are all based on sound theory, historical evidence, common sense, and independent critical thinking to answer the key question “how do we create the most prosperity for the most people?”

1. Falling prices are natural, falling prices are good. Fighting this steals from the working class and gives to the investor class.
2. Your contribution to society is what you produce, not what you consume. Paris Hilton is not the model citizen for creating prosperity.
3. Paying a man not to work does not create wealth, it only transfers it.
4. Business regulations help big business and big government at the expense of small business, consumers, and workers.
5. A tax cut on another man helps you when compared to no tax cuts for anyone. But when compared to a tax cut for yourself, the choice is clear which is better for you.
6. Tomorrow’s prosperity comes from today’s savings, regardless of who is doing the saving.
7. Central planner policies that help sellers and producers do so by hurting buyers and consumers.
8. Public money should not be spent on private consumption.
9. To privatize profits but socialize losses is to steal.
10. There is no shortage of jobs. There is only a shortage of money to pay for those jobs. To cure this shortage we need to stop wasting money on jobs that do little to no good for us and we need to allow more people to do what the bottom-up power of the free markets want as opposed to what the top-down power decree of government wants. For every young man fighting an unnecessary war, there is one less man who can teach 3rd grade and coach little league. For every MVA worker there is one less worker available to pickup trash or plug potholes. For every genius who goes into accounting to demystify our tax code there is one less genius to go to engineering school.

We will never hit our goals if we keep aiming at the wrong targets.

What the Republicans Must do to Win in Democrat Territory

Monday, September 13th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

If Maryland Republicans are to have any hope of winning in November, they must offer voters a clear and credible message of how to solve our nation’s biggest problems, namely huge unemployment and huge deficits for as far as the eye can see. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1, running on the broad, traditional conservative platform is not the path to victory. Dropping the divisive social issues (I call them divide and conquer issues as they only serve to ensure the permanent power of the ruling class) and focusing on an amended economic theme zeroed in on helping the middle class and small business is.

The Republican Party’s #1 problem in MD is that the majority of the state simply does not agree with its core platform. Even if an underdog candidate could muster the resources to become a household name, he is still condemned to sacrificial lamb status if his message runs with the party line. Does anyone outside the bubble of those who have been running in the Republican primary really think that a platform of cutting taxes on millionaires and Fortune 500 companies, with a side of conservative social issues, is really going to compel roughly a quarter of registered Democrats to cross party lines?

The Republicans can overcome this handicap without abandoning their core principal. Facing a nation in the depths of economic malaise, Ronald Reagan summed up core Republicanism with “In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem.” On the broad spectrum of more government vs. less government, Republicans can still be staunchly on the side of less government, but the devil is in the details. Is there anything inherently anti-Republican, big government or socialist about aiming tax cuts at the middle class or small business? So why don’t Republicans embrace it with a payroll tax cut? Is there anything anti-free markets about ending the central planning within our banking system? So why don’t Republicans outside of Ron Paul support it? Is there something Marxist about saying small businesses need to be exempted from certain regulatory barriers? Then why don’t Republicans get onboard with exempting the first 100 employees from the payroll tax?

Finally, 2010 is the year to get down to brass tacks on exactly what spending to cut. 40% of spending is now borrowed money, and any candidate who fails to identify specifically what and where they will cut is being more of a politician than a problem solver. I am the only candidate who has been endorsed by anything outside of right wing conservative groups or politicians, and am the only candidate who offers a detailed action plan to balance the budget and create jobs. I am the only candidate with a chance of being anything beyond the biennial Republican sacrificial lamb because I am the only candidate with a platform worth building on.

The Rich are Getting Richer While the Poor are Getting Poorer

Sunday, September 12th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

Census figures being released for 2009 are expected to show record levels of poverty in the US, both in growth rate, and as a percent of total population. This comes at the same time Wall St Bonuses are breaking records. Another interesting trend supporting this observation is an explosion of big/luxury SUV sales and luxury auto sales at the same time car sales are falling, especially small cars.

Right now the alternative to class warfare is class dominance. Before I am accused of being progressive or socialist for pointing this out, I remind you my platform is for smaller government, lower taxes, and less regulation. I simply want to aim those tax cuts at the middle class and small business as opposed to the Republican/Paul Ryan/Marie Antoinette Louis XVI plan that wants to aim them at millionaires.

My core philosophy is that more free markets, or a more laissez-faire approach, would cure this inequity and injustice. History has shown that a pro-inflation Fed policy favors the rich at the expense of the poor. It is central planning at its worst. Our tax system is a regressive payroll tax jammed on top of a progressive federal income tax that results in certain lower incomes paying a higher percentage of their income in taxes than millionaires do. Our regulatory system is a complex burden that stifles business creation and growth, thereby choking new competition from competing with the big boys thus actually helping big business at the expense of small business, consumers, and workers.

So much of the population, especially Republicans, are concerned with top down redistribution. The truth is our government’s primary direction of redistribution these days is from the bottom up. That’s a problem that must be stopped, and the solutions are to infuse more free market workings into our regulator, tax, and monetary systems. In short, I offer free market solutions to what are traditionally progressive concerns. And that is why I am the best of 5 Republican underdogs to take on Dutch Ruppersberger in a heavily Democratic district.

Ruppersberger’s History of Preying on the Poor: The Ultimate Ditch Dutch Dirt Piece

Friday, September 10th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

Ruppersberger’s story is one of continually enriching himself by preying on the most vulnerable members of our society, all the while passing himself off as a nice guy who cares about the average working man.  The truth of his history is detailed here with links to supporting evidence for everything.

Dutch Ruppersberger started out as a debt collector shaking down poor people who couldn’t pay their rent. He violated several federal credit laws in the process, ultimately settling a federal lawsuit for $40,000. He graduated to County Executive where he tried to steal waterfront proerty from the working class so he could give it to rich developers. In 2008 he was sued by Pennsylvania for using telemarketers out of India to harass PA homeowners for mortgage products, all the while violating several federal laws. Most recently he voted to take money from the working class to give it to Wall St Bankers while claiming it was in the best interest of those who he took from. He earns almost $300,000 a year double dipping from the taxpayer, with personal assets of over a million dollars, at a time when the average working man is struggling to keep a roof over his head and food on the table. How this predator has managed to make it this far in his life is a testament to the corruptive forces of money and politics. November 2nd he needs to go, and out of a field of 5 Republican underdogs running in Tuesday’s primary, I have the best shot of taking him down.

To beat Ruppersberger’s name recognition, and million dollar plus campaign war chest, it’s going to take 2 weapons that I have in spades:

1. A platform that can transcend traditional politics to move the hearts and minds of the majority of MD’s 2nd district voters-66% of whom are Democrats.
2. A real fighting spirit. The type of personality that would stand in front of City Hall with a bullhorn in the depths of January.

I am the “pragmatic economics independent” of this election. I am “getting out bold ideas” with a detailed action plan to close the deficit and create jobs. The other candidates running are good men that would be huge improvements over Ruppersberger, but they are running as Fox News Republicans and don’t stand a chance in this district. Only I offer an economically focused, independent, pragmatic plan with specific solutions to our pressing problems that has the real potential for Democrat support.

Please share and repost.  MD 2nd district voters need to know the full history of the man who has represented them for 8 years now.

Radio Host: Thanks For Bold Ideas We Don’t Hear Every Election

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

Yesterday I was interviewed on the radio Mark Kreslins (inside the black box on the left hand side Sept 8, Hour 1, minute marker 20:20).  After going over my detailed plan to close the deficit and create jobs for about 15 minutes, the host thanked me for being bold and “getting ideas out there that are not the vanilla flavor we hear every election cycle.” His assessment is similar to the City Paper’s which in their endorsement of me said I “sound more like a pragmatic economics independent than anything else.”

This is not the time for platforms of platitudes. All of us want smaller government, lower taxes, more jobs, and more prosperity. All of us believe in the sanctity of the US Constitution. The question for your candidate is “if elected what specifically are you going to do to solve the problems we face?” 40 cents of every dollar our government spends is borrowed. The deficit is as big as 10% of the economy. Unemployment continues to bounce around 10% with no improvement in sight. Entitlement programs are a ticking Ponzi debt bomb that are on pace to make Bernie Madoff look like Mickey Mouse. But we still have time to right the ship and avoid this iceberg, if we are bold enough to frankly discuss these problems.

80 cents of every dollar our government spends is on either private consumption via entitlement programs, or destruction via the defense department. This is not the path to prosperity in a free enterprise market economy. We must cut the sacred cows, and cut taxes on those who need it, namely small businesses and the middle class by cutting the payroll tax. The best way to expand payrolls is by cutting the payroll tax.

City Paper: “Only Dowlut offers anything resembling a comprehensive economic plan”

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

I was just endorsed by the Baltimore City Paper:

“Only 31-year-old U.S. Marine Corps Reserves veteran Josh Dowlut—a mortgage broker campaigning on a pro-small business, anti-big government/business platform to balance the budget—offers anything resembling a comprehensive economic plan on his web site (joshdowlut.com), one that makes him sound more like a pragmatic economics independent than anything else.”

Two other candidates in this primary race have racked up endorsements from a combination of local Republican clubs and hard-line conservative groups.  That might win the primary, but it won’t win the general.  My City Paper endorsement shows that I can cut across party lines, have “pragmatic, independent, economic” solutions, and ultimately I’m the best underdog to upset Dutch Ruppersberger.

My message is simple: cut taxes on the middle class and small business, not the rich and Fortune 500 companies, and the sacred cows of entitlement and defense spending must be cut if we are to avoid insolvency. I am the only candidate with a detailed action plan to close the deficit, expand payrolls, and put us back on the path to prosperity.

The Justin Bieberization of America and the Danger of Group Think

Monday, September 6th, 2010

http://joshdowlut.com/

What is it with our need to worship idols? What is it with our need to be part of something and to conform? Whatever happened to the American spirit of individuality and free thinking?

Two practices are critical to a free society:

1. Bottom-up power
2. Individual thinking

The political party system is very much an exercise in top-down power and group think.  Our country will be more free if we start electing individual thinkers over group conformers.  To do that the perception of the general election as more important than the primary election, and the corresponding voter turnouts, must be reversed.  If you’re only going to vote in one make it the primary.  That’s where the real choices are.

Neither of the major parties really believes in freedom.  The D’s want you to be controlled by big government.  The R’s want you to be controlled by big business and organized religion.  I want you to be controlled by yourself.